Condo Market Report - November 2022

Sales for October on TRREB matched those of September and August. When you consider the normal seasonality of the market, our guess is that we have reached the bottom of the sales cycle. This represents a 49% drop in sales compared to the same month in 2021.

Prices are a different matter. All property types have given back all the gains made earlier in the year. We are back to 2020 prices. But to determine which markets are most susceptible to further price decreases you should look at ‘new’ listings versus sales. For the overall market new listings are down 12% from October of last year. (It is true that ‘active’ listings are higher than a year ago but many of these properties are with sellers who will not reduce their price or are in need of upgrades). In today’s market, buyers are only interested in newly renovated properties. Fixer Uppers are out of favour.

Anything below 40% is a buyer’s market. A balanced market is 40-60%. The numbers suggest we can probably expect a 1-2% drop in prices over the winter. Downtown condos are the most susceptible market due to new condo projects sold in previous years now coming into the resale market.